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February to be colder

January was a somewhat dull month. On this last day of the month, the avgerage temperature at the Lexington official reporting station is 35.6F so far, which is a couple of degrees warmer than where we should be.  Rainfall is 4.39" for the month, which is above average. Snowfall is only 0.5" which is well below average. So it looks like January is going to go down as a mild and wet month.

Looking toward February, I think we're going to see a big change. The storm system that brought severe weather to the entire region yesterday has ushered in a pattern change that will likely carry us through the next few weeks. You can expect wintry conditions this weekend with blustery winds and occasional snow showers througout the weekend. This cold air will stick around until probably Wednesday the 6th when another big storm system may try to form in the Plains and start it's trek toward the Ohio Valley. The GFS model shows that a repeat of what we saw yesterday is a possibility, with thunderstorms sweeping through the region on the following weekend, and then cold air returning around the 12th of the month.

The global teleconnections are all predicted to run slightly positive through these next couple of weeks. El Nino never materialized like we thought it was going to back in the late fall of 2012 and currently those conditions are running in the neutral phase. This all basically means that there are no strong signs for extremes in either direction for our weather in the eastern U.S. As a result, the official government outlooks for February 2013 are calling for average temperataures and average precipitation for us and I tend to agree. It'll be colder than what we saw in January, and we'll have an increased threat for storms and also snowfall throughout February.

In the winter time if you have a month that runs mild like January did, it is not uncommon at all to have the following month balance things out and run cold and more active. It's a good bet that we're about to see that unfold. By my count, the Anderson County schools have only had one snow day this year which is unusual. I think though that business is about to pick up weatherwise as we are now squarely in the middle of winter.

Before I go, I wanted to mention that yesterday's severe weather did spawn tornadoes in Kentucky. The closest one to Lawrenceburg was about 35 miles SSW of town, in Marion County. It is very important to always take tornado watches and severe thunderstorm watches seriously, and have a plan of action ready for your family in case you are placed under a warning. Severe weather DOES strike Kentucky in every month of the year.

-Shawn