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After having gone all year with very quiet weather and nothing much to talk about except the cool, wet summer we had things have turned around lately. I wrote in my last blog update that fall looked to be more active and that's exactly what we've gotten. Some cold snaps have brought the growing season to an end and we've also seen two severe weather outbreaks in recent weeks, the last of which claimed lives and leveled towns not far from here. Lawrenceburg was very fortunate to dodge the bullet again.
Looking down the road into Thanksgiving week and beyond it appears that more interesting weather may be coming. First of all let's talk about next week. For days now, the GFS weather model has been hinting at an over-running event setting up across the northern half of Kentucky on Nov. 26. An over-running event is one where you get warm air running overtop of cold air and in winter time this is signficant because if you have below freezing temperatures at the ground and above freezing temps aloft you can get freezing rain. Notice on the attached charts how the freezing line (blue solid line) at the surface is draped over roughly the I-64 corridor, but the freezing line aloft is slightly north of here. That shows that the model is predicting temps around 32 at ground level here in the Lawrenceburg area, and aloft the temps are forecast to be closer to 40. The precipitation therefore would be sleet and/or freezing rain that could glaze everything over.
Having said all that, we are a week away from this weather system and confidence in this forecast is still low at this point. I bring it up to simply show what could happen. It will bear watching closely. Even if ice doesn't occur here, we can tell from just having the threat of it this early in the season that the weather pattern is already growing more active this year. In fact, if you look at the upper level forecast going into December you can see how the jet stream is predicted to sag south of us which would allow the coldest air of the season to spill into the Ohio Valley, along with some possible snow.
It's looking like 2013 will go out with some interesting weather during these last several weeks. After the holidays I'll take a look at what we may be facing going into the harsh winter months of January-March and I'll take a stab at making a forecast for that time period.