From snow to severe thunderstorms?

From the beginning of December until the middle of February, it seemed like we were locked into a freezer. We didn't spend much time above the magical 32 degree mark and snow was frequent and nearly an every-other-day affair. Boy...how the weather in Kentucky can change.

NOAA - Storm Prediction Center

Areas being highlighted for a threat of severe weather valid Thursday, Feb. 24.

This past week saw readings not far from 70 degrees with sunshine plentiful and a nice daily breeze. Monday evening featured a powerful cold front that brought winds to near 40 miles per hour in Lawrenceburg, which is something we typically think of in spring.  And now we are staring down the barrel of another loaded weather system that will likely cause an outbreak of severe weather later this week for a lot of folks in the Mississippi and Ohio River valleys, including Kentucky.

The GFS and NAM weather models are not agreeing 100 percent on how this system will play out right now. What they do agree on is that a warm front will push through Kentucky early Thursday. This will likely bring rain with it, some of which could be heavy at times.  We then will see the center of low pressure with this storm track toward Kentucky on Thursday night. The exact track of this low is where the disagreement lies.

The NAM model currently takes the low along the Ohio River, which would put much of Kentucky in the warm sector of the system. The warm sector is the area east of the cold front, but south of the warm front, where warmth and moisture can readily stream in from the Gulf and fuel thunderstorms.

The GFS model, however, takes the low to near the KY/TN state line which would bring us heavy rain, but would decrease our odds of severe thunderstorms.

I've attached a chart outlining the risk of severe weather as issued by the Storm Prediction Center. There are four levels of threat.  General T-storms, Slight Risk, Moderate Risk and High Risk. High Risk is rare, and when they issue that one, it's almost certain that there will be damage and loss of life. Moderate Risk is seen a little more in the Spring. A Slight Risk is still serious though and means that severe thunderstorms are possible in the outlined areas. As of the time of this writing, Central Kentucky is currently in a Slight Risk for Thursday. 

Regardless of whether we see damaging thunderstorms Thursday or not, the models are also indicating that a lot of rainfall could be generated by this system. Flooding is also a serious possibility later this week. I'd recommend staying tuned to the weather forecast.

As a reminder...the NWS is hosting a weather spotters class here in Lawrenceburg again this year. It's currently scheduled for March 11 at 7 p.m. Check its website at www.weather.gov/louisville for more details. It's a good opportunity to learn more about thunderstorms.

Shawn Crowe is a Lawrenceburg resident with a degree in meteorology/climatology from Western Kentucky University.