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We've almost got the first full week of meteorological winter under our belts. It's time to start looking toward the holidays, and particularly at our odds of seeing the sought after "white Christmas." To date, it's been fairly mild overall. We've seen some rain, but November was a dry month compared to average with only 1.79" in Lawrenceburg for the entire month. The average temperature for the month was 43 degrees here which was just slightly below average. Winter hasn't really made itself known around these parts yet. But according to all the major computer models ... that is about to change.
Notice how far north the jet stream is right now on the map I've included depicting Dec. 6. Now look at the forecast for the jet stream for the period around Dec. 20. See how the pattern has drastically changed? Now the jet is predicted to be flowing across the southern U.S. with a cutoff low spinning over Maine. This will allow some of the cold air that's been bottled up in Canada to spill into the Ohio Valley. Here's where it gets interesting. At the same time that's happening, a low pressure area may kick up on the Gulf coast and spread moisture northward. If this happens, it would cause snow to break out across Kentucky during the weekend leading up to Christmas Eve. Take a look at the GFS representation of Dec. 22 on the map provided.
As that storm works into the Carolinas under the current projection, it spreads heavy snow into Kentucky. This is still two weeks away and there are a lot of variables on the table that will make or break this forecast. Don't get excited about this just yet and go running around telling everyone it is going to snow. My point here is this: the cold air is coming and the chance of a white Christmas in Kentucky is still looking very good. The fact that it's been so warm and dry over the past several weeks is ironically the reason why as we head toward Christmas, the timing may be in our favor for a big change. Fingers crossed!